The 60-day window for the US and Iran to agree on a long-term peace framework expired on Monday. On the ground, however, both sides had shut the window in late June and through July, as they traded strikes. The MoU had begun to unravel, largely over disagreements about how its terms should be interpreted. The framework also failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blockaded since the Israel-US attack in late February, prompting an American counterblockade. Far from limiting hostilities, the 60-day period saw the war widen, with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia attacking each other as the Yemen-based militant group enforced a partial blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb. Both the US and Iran are now doubling down on economic warfare and both have their reasons to do so. The past few months have shown the US that bombing alone will not dislodge the hardline regime in Tehran and the US is running low on munitions. Iran, too, knows that the US has come to stay in the region, and that ballistic missiles fired at US bases or Israel will not change that. The deadlock means that the rest of the world remains hostage to a conflict that neither side appears capable of ending.
Trump’s position has oscillated between escalatory rhetoric — he has now threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of a deal with Iran — and an insistence that a negotiated settlement is possible. With a midterm election approaching, he needs to demonstrate that the pressure campaign is producing results without keeping the country trapped in another foreign war. Iran, meanwhile, must calculate how long it can absorb the economic costs without making concessions. Washington has rescinded sanction waivers on Iranian oil in the international market, while threatening to maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports “indefinitely”. Tehran calculates that it can squeeze Trump until the midterms, and sees the stalemate as the new balance of power.
It remains to be seen who will blink first, whether either side can gain decisive leverage to negotiate a settlement, or the deadlock becomes the new normal. Should the stalemate persist, India, which has managed the consequences so far, will have to reconsider the threat to its economic, energy and strategic interests. Diplomacy alone will not do the trick. India must reduce its overwhelming dependence on imported oil, build larger strategic petroleum reserves, and aggressively invest in alternative energy sources.
